How much tradable supply could increase
Compares estimated shares unlocking with the current public float. A larger expansion can mean more potential sellable supply hitting the market.
Methodology
Unlock Pressure Index
UPI is IPO Lockup IQ's high-level signal for estimating how much selling-pressure risk may exist around an IPO lockup expiration.
What UPI Measures
Float supply pressure around lockup dates
When restricted insider, founder, employee, or early investor shares become eligible for sale, the tradable supply of stock can expand quickly. UPI summarizes that potential pressure into a score that is easier to scan across many companies.
Low0-44
Moderate45-74
High75-100
Current Inputs
Factors used today
How close the unlock date is
Near-term unlocks receive more weight because traders may begin positioning before the exact expiration date.
Who may be able to sell
Applies a pressure weight for insider or early-holder concentration when available, because not every unlock has the same ownership mix.
Additional Indicators
Signals we can add to strengthen UPI
Post-unlock volume versus 30-day average
A large volume jump around the window can indicate actual selling activity or heavy speculation.
Pre-window drift and post-window reaction
Stocks that sell off into the event may already have pressure priced in, while sharp drops after the event can confirm supply absorption risk.
Whether demand absorbs the unlock
If price stabilizes despite high volume, it may suggest buyers are absorbing unlocked shares.
Bearish positioning ahead of the date
Rising short interest or borrow pressure can show that traders are already leaning into a lockup selloff thesis.
S-1, 424B, and amended lockup language
Exact lockup terms, staggered releases, waivers, and earnings-linked releases should improve confidence in the event date.
Earnings, guidance, and market regime
Strong fundamentals can offset unlock pressure, while weak earnings or a risk-off market can amplify it.
Important disclaimer: UPI is an informational research signal and is not financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. IPO Lockup IQ is not a replacement for a licensed financial advisor. Investors should verify SEC filings, consider their own risk tolerance, and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.